The Mideast conflict has boosted revenues for most oil and gas producers but has also created new uncertainties, suggesting it may not portend another investment supercycle.

Policy responses to energy market disturbances caused the Strait of Hormuz closure vary, but export restrictions are one of the most impactful. In the short term, they generate further turmoil, while long term they undermine investor confidence. So far, an estimated 1.0–1.35 million b/d of refined product supply – primarily in Asia – has been taken off the market through explicit policy action. Export taxes are also being utilized in countries like Brazil and India, while others are navigating the shock through quotas and managed allocation. Elsewhere, restrictions will be an ongoing debate – headlined by key exporters like Australia and the US – as long as market dislocations continue.