Former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture represents a major turning point, but the US left in place much of Venezuela’s upper-level leadership. Washington aims to pressure Caracas via a continued oil embargo – and military threats – to get it to accept US demands, including opening the oil sector to US firms and halting support for adversaries. Energy Intelligence has updated our Venezuelan political scenarios and crude production outlook. This year, we see a varying production drop as shadow fleet tanker seizures hit exports and diluent imports. However, the medium to long-term outlook depends heavily on the political landscape and the continued geopolitical interplay between Washington and Caracas.

Trump's cabinet meeting with oil executives suggested that Exxon and ConocoPhillips will not lead the US' entry into Venezuela's oil patch, but others stand ready.

Venezuela highlights how Trump’s Monroe Doctrine revival seeks to reinforce US primacy in the Western Hemisphere.