China has been quietly involved in helping broker US-Iran peace talks. Trump's move to halt Iran's oil exports could prompt it to weigh in more heavily.

The Strait of Hormuz closure is the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets. For now, this episode is overwhelmingly a supply shock, with physical rationing occurring in Asia and Australia, and Europe right behind. As part of Energy Intelligence demand revisions, our Base Case scenario (45% probability) results in demand growth of around 60,000 b/d this year, against a pre-war 2026 baseline of just above 900,000. A Deeper Case sees a nearly 100,000 b/d contraction (25% probability) requiring confirmed cracker shutdowns, extended Chinese export curbs and a European recession. Diesel freight volumes, Asian steam crackers and China’s export policy decision at the end of April will be the earliest signposts for our trajectory.