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Despite recent noise and frequent claims of an imminent deal, the Mideast Gulf War remains mired in Energy Intelligence’s Diplomatic Stalemate scenario. Yet, pressure is growing, and the likelihood Hostilities Resume in earnest – as shown by recent ceasefire violations and bellicose rhetoric form the US – is rising. However, the odds an Interim Agreement is reached can also not be discounted.

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Access the full assays for Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crudes rerouted through the East-West bypass pipeline, and explore how Saudi exports remained resilient at 6.22 million b/d in Q1 2026, while the share of lighter crude grades rose to 79% from 68% in 2025.