India Gorges on Cheap Russian Barrels

Russia had merely been a blip on India's oil import radar until February. But the deep discounts Moscow has offered for its crude since the start of the Ukraine war have rapidly made Russia the second-biggest supplier to India. Volumes are nearing 1 million barrels per day, accounting for over a fifth of India's total imports. And experts say there is room for more, even if buying additional Russian oil risks further upsetting the West, which has been trying to constrain revenue flows to Moscow. In June, Russia supplied 985,000 b/d to India, edging out Saudi Arabia as its second-largest supplier, according to Kpler data. The kingdom’s supplies declined to 686,000 b/d while Iraq remained the top suppler at 1.01 million b/d. Import figures vary due to different assumptions about cargoes, but they all suggest a huge surge in Russian oil into India. Vortexa estimates they averaged 980,000 b/d last month, behind Iraq at 1.05 million b/d but ahead of Saudi Arabia's 760,000 b/d. India's Russian oil imports averaged 655,000 b/d in May, the latest month of official data from the federal commerce ministry. That compares to an average of just 50,000 b/d in 2021. Kpler analyst Viktor Katona estimates July shipments will remain between 950,000-1 million b/d, while Vortexa’s Serena Huang pegs imports in the first half of July at a record 1.4 million b/d, excluding CPC blend. Katona expects volumes to remain between 900,000 b/d and 1 million b/d for the second half of 2022.