The Big Picture

A Watershed Moment

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  • Last week’s China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Tehran to re-establish diplomatic ties is potentially transformational for the region’s politics.
  • Much uncertainty remains over what it means for the US’ traditional role as the region’s hegemon and the extent to which China will challenge it.
  • Diplomacy could well still falter, even fail. But the mere fact an agreement was made is significant in itself.

Riyadh and Tehran’s fierce rivalry has been a constant in the region for decades. The Mar. 10 Beijing agreement is a single, cautious step toward reconciliation — but shouldn’t be underplayed. There are drivers for both countries. Proxy conflicts in Yemen and Syria are proving unwinnable militarily, unaffordable economically and untenable politically. With a nuclear deal having slipped away, Iran needs allies not more enemies. While US security guarantees have not stopped drones from attacking critical Gulf infrastructure, de-escalation can.

Topics:
Security Risk , Nuclear Policy, Opec/Opec-Plus, Military Conflict
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